mikeandgerry wrote:In another 6-12 months Sarah Palin will be relegated to total obscurity. She is out of office and her book will be out of steam. The media has annilated her. She is a lightning rod for media criticism; If she rejuvenates her candidacy she'll be attacked again and again because she is an easy target. She remains lousy on her feet as she has demonstrated in interview after interview. The party will dump her like garbage in favor of a moderate.
I think her "use by" date is after the 2012 primaries.
The media cares about ratings far more than political philosophy, if they were trying to minimize her, they wouldn't cover her. If she gets viewers then they'll cover her. I do agree that she will not have the support of the party establishment, but she really does not care. After all, her book is called Going Rouge
. She will continue to have the support of talk radio. Limbaugh, Levin, Beck et al, don't really care about winning in 2012, they just want the *censored* to be stirred so lots of people listen. I think she will do OK is some states in the primaries. I think you will have a significant "operation chaos"
style movement within the hard left who want to keep her candidacy alive as long as possible. I don't think she'll be able to raise money on the par with Mitt Romney. I also doubt her fiscal conservative credentials will stand up to much scrutiny.
If she runs we're going to see the party split with the fiscal conservatives supporting Romney and the evangelical right (many of whom think Mormons are apostates) supporting Palin. If Huckabee comes in then Palin is in real trouble, because the evangelical vote with be split.
All that said. I think there's a big chance that she has no interest in running. She quit the Governors job the week she cashed the million dollar advance check from her book. She's out of public disclosure requirements. She can make as much money as she likes off her 20% base and never have to tell a soul.