Climate Change <Start Playing Taps>

 
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Poconoeagle
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Post by Poconoeagle » Sun. Nov. 22, 2009 4:39 pm

the history channel show on krakatoa(?) was just on about the 1883 explosion and the child of it anock krakatoww but the interesting thingis the discovery of the earlier lava flows found with evidence of the even larger and more devestating explosion from back around 535.

mans profound abuse has had but a mere scratch on earths evolvment process and the ego explanation is right on target.

al gore and others are egomanics and huge liars for profit.

yes for sure we as responsible humans need to control the damage we do to the planet and should stop at nothing to strive to do the right thing for ALL MEN and not the friggin dollar bill... ;)


 
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Post by Richard S. » Sun. Nov. 22, 2009 6:52 pm

dll wrote:The feeling from the people that have been following this for many months is that this posting of the hacked files was an inside job by a whistle blower within CRU. Under UK law the whistle blower is protected from prosecution.
Yes and there are many other signs as to why that would be, generally hackers do it for the "glory". Typical hacker would have been flaunting this anywhere he could be heard. Another point that has brought up is he knew what he was looking for, the emails are just small part of the file. The larger part is the datasets which have been requested by many people for years. One has wonder if there isn't a ticking time bomb there too. Guess we'll find out as the people requesting that data now have their hands in it. Even if it was outside job it certainly wasn't hacker in the typical sense of the word.
How about a little reality check?
Lets suppose they are right? By their arrogance and elitism they have just set the research on this back at least a decade. Some of these people may end up in Jail. I was reading one article where Mann apparently testified before Congress one thing and the email show another. To quote the commenter "Mann of Penn State will be known as Mann of State Pen" if that is the case.

'
stockingfull wrote:Lessee, in just the last, say, 150 years of the planet's history, we've
1. had a population explosion of humankind, generating unprecedented carbon emissions by our mere existence;
2. deforested vast areas of carbon-processing green plants to create habitat; and
3. burned zillions of tons of never-before-used subterranean carbon resources (coal, oil, gas) for our heat and to feed the machinery of the industrial revolution.
Note the total scale is 1% or 1/100 of the true representation becsue if it were full size there would be nothing to see.

Image

Granted this increase could possibly have an effect but the propaganda machine such as Al Gore will lead you to believe we are radically changing the composition of the atmosphere which we are not.

 
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Post by franco b » Sun. Nov. 22, 2009 10:17 pm

Can the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Brazil produce a tornado in Texas?

That was the title of a speech given in 1966 by the meteorologist Edward Lorenz. Lorenz had entered numbers for temperature, wind speed ,etc. into a computerized climate model. The program gave answers carried to 6 decimal places. Lorenz decided to check the result again and re-entered the computer given numbers again, only to save time he only carried them to 3 decimal places. He was astounded to find the result was wildly different from his first result. After checking everything he realized that the different result was because he had used only 3 decimal places. Instead of using say 6.123456 he used 6.123. That tiny infinitesimal change caused his result to change drastically.

The whole point is that changes that are far beyond our ability to measure have far reaching effects on the developing weather. So we have "experts" steeped in ignorance making pronouncements in both the climate and economy that will have far reaching effects on both.

Richard

 
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Post by Richard S. » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 5:31 am

Richard S. wrote: Granted this increase could possibly have an effect but the propaganda machine such as Al Gore will lead you to believe we are radically changing the composition of the atmosphere which we are not.
Just to add as it's not clear from that graph how fast this level is rising but to get to 1% or the top of the graph would take about 10,000 years at the current rate it's going up.

-----------------------------------

Within the archive is a file called HARRY_READ_ME.txt which as of right now may prove to be the biggest wealth of information available. I've only read some of it as it's 700kb which for a text file is quite large. It's apparently a diary documenting 2 or 3 years of programmers struggle with the datasets themselves. Manipulation is one thing however corrupt data brings it to whole new level, as the saying goes "Garbage in, Garbage out". Over the next few days chances are you will be hearing a lot about this file. Here's excerpt:
Here, the expected 1990-2003 period is MISSING - so the correlations aren't so hot! Yet
the WMO codes and station names /locations are identical (or close). What the hell is
supposed to happen here? Oh yeah - there is no 'supposed', I can make it up. So I have :-)

If an update station matches a 'master' station by WMO code, but the data is unpalatably
inconsistent, the operator is given three choices:

<BEGIN QUOTE>
You have failed a match despite the WMO codes matching.
This must be resolved!! Please choose one:

1. Match them after all.
2. Leave the existing station alone, and discard the update.
3. Give existing station a false code, and make the update the new WMO station.

Enter 1,2 or 3:
<END QUOTE>

You can't imagine what this has cost me - to actually allow the operator to assign false
WMO codes!! But what else is there in such situations? Especially when dealing with a 'Master'
database of dubious provenance (which, er, they all are and always will be).

False codes will be obtained by multiplying the legitimate code (5 digits) by 100, then adding
1 at a time until a number is found with no matches in the database. THIS IS NOT PERFECT but as
there is no central repository for WMO codes - especially made-up ones - we'll have to chance
duplicating one that's present in one of the other databases. In any case, anyone comparing WMO
codes between databases - something I've studiously avoided doing except for tmin/tmax where I
had to - will be treating the false codes with suspicion anyway. Hopefully.

Of course, option 3 cannot be offered for CLIMAT bulletins, there being no metadata with which
to form a new station.

This still meant an awful lot of encounters with naughty Master stations, when really I suspect
nobody else gives a hoot about. So with a somewhat cynical shrug, I added the nuclear option -
to match every WMO possible, and turn the rest into new stations (er, CLIMAT excepted). In other
words, what CRU usually do. It will allow bad databases to pass unnoticed, and good databases to
become bad, but I really don't think people care enough to fix 'em, and it's the main reason the
project is nearly a year late.

And there are STILL WMO code problems!!! Let's try again with the issue. Let's look at the first
station in most of the databases, JAN MAYEN. Here it is in various recent databases:

 
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Post by CoalHeat » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 7:40 am

Lessee, in just the last, say, 150 years of the planet's history, we've
1. had a population explosion of humankind, generating unprecedented carbon emissions by our mere existence;
2. deforested vast areas of carbon-processing green plants to create habitat; and
3. burned zillions of tons of never-before-used subterranean carbon resources (coal, oil, gas) for our heat and to feed the machinery of the industrial revolution.

But I'm sure that any effect upon the earth's temperature is just a coincidence. :roll:
Nothing man has done has had any effect on the earth's temperature, IMHO.
One good volcanic eruption will spew an enormous amount of climate changing materials into the atmosphere, and there have been thousands of eruptions throughout time, dwarfing anything man has done or will do.

The only way man's actions could change the climate would be massive nuclear detonations resulting in a predicted nuclear winter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

Coal was burned well before 1859 (150 years ago).
The earliest known use of coal was in China. Coal from the Fu-shun mine in northeastern China may have been used to smelt copper as early as 3,000 years ago. The Chinese thought coal was a stone that could burn.
http://www.energyquest.ca.gov/story/chapter08.html

 
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Post by coaledsweat » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 8:20 am


 
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Post by Richard S. » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 8:22 am

Your tax dollars at work:
From: "Mick Kelly" <[email protected]>
To: Nguyen Huu Ninh ([email protected])
Subject: NOAA funding
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 14:17:15 +0000

Ninh
NOAA want to give us more money for the El Nino work with IGCN.
How much do we have left from the last budget? I reckon most has been spent
but we need to show some left to cover the costs of the trip Roger didn't make and also
the fees/equipment/computer money we haven't spent otherwise NOAA will be suspicious.
Politically this money may have to go through Simon's institute but there overhead rate is high so maybe not!
Best wishes
Mick


 
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Post by wlape3 » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 9:06 am

franco b wrote:Can the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Brazil produce a tornado in Texas?

That was the title of a speech given in 1966 by the meteorologist Edward Lorenz. Lorenz had entered numbers for temperature, wind speed ,etc. into a computerized climate model. The program gave answers carried to 6 decimal places. Lorenz decided to check the result again and re-entered the computer given numbers again, only to save time he only carried them to 3 decimal places. He was astounded to find the result was wildly different from his first result. After checking everything he realized that the different result was because he had used only 3 decimal places. Instead of using say 6.123456 he used 6.123. That tiny infinitesimal change caused his result to change drastically.

The whole point is that changes that are far beyond our ability to measure have far reaching effects on the developing weather. So we have "experts" steeped in ignorance making pronouncements in both the climate and economy that will have far reaching effects on both.

Richard
In my career in the chemical industry I've done quite a bit of modeling myself. Such a result given the small differences involved brings into question the validity of the model and it's underlying assumptions more than anything else. The other thing to consider is the fact that much of what determines local weather is the result of randomness. This randomness tends to cancel out the weirder effects rather than enhancing them.

 
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Post by Richard S. » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 12:16 pm

Found the Harry text file, if you have technical skills in this area...well you're probably going to be apalled.

http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/HARRY_READ_ME.txt

I'm beginning to wonder myself and speculated elsewhere if "Harry" is the hacker or maybe an underling.

There is apparently huge problems with the datasets, coding practices and many, many problems.

Looking though the comments on one Climate site it was suggested that irreplaceable temperature data may has been irretrievably lost.

 
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Post by Richard S. » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 1:54 pm

And in a related story the New York Times environmental reporter decides:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/priv ... n-display/

The documents appear to have been acquired illegally and contain all manner of private information and statements that were never intended for the public eye, so they won’t be posted here. But a quick sift of skeptics’ Web sites will point anyone to plenty of sources.
Yeaaaaaaa, wouldn't want to go all jouranlistically on us now would ya... (I invented new word!)

 
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Post by Richard S. » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 3:11 pm

Looks like the ball is rolling....
Inhofe to call for hearing into CRU, U.N. climate change research - The Hill's Blog Briefing Room

In an interview with The Washington Times on Monday, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) announced he would probe whether the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "cooked the science to make this thing look as if the science was settled, when all the time of course we knew it was not."

"[T]his thing is serious, you think about the literally millions of dollars that have been thrown away on some of this stuff that they came out with," Inhofe, the ranking member of the Environment and Public Works Committee, said during the interview.
And across the pond as well....
Climate change champion and sceptic call for inquiry into leaked emails | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Climate change champion and sceptic both call for inquiry into leaked emails

Both sides of climate change debate urge investigation as Met Office dismisses 'shallow attempt to discredit robust science'

Prominent voices on both sides of the climate change debate today called for an independent inquiry into claims of collusion between climate scientists after it emerged last week that hundreds of their emails and documents had been leaked that allegedly manipulated data and destroyed evidence for Freedom of Information Act requests.

 
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Post by stockingfull » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 9:20 pm

What a surprise: Inhofe's pushing this.

I'll tell you one thing: if this "leak story" is to gain any traction at all, it's gonna take some actually moderate people to buy in -- not just Ostrich Jim Inhofe. Somebody's actually going to have to change their mind.

 
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Post by coal berner » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 10:04 pm

Wood'nCoal wrote:
Lessee, in just the last, say, 150 years of the planet's history, we've
1. had a population explosion of humankind, generating unprecedented carbon emissions by our mere existence;
2. deforested vast areas of carbon-processing green plants to create habitat; and
3. burned zillions of tons of never-before-used subterranean carbon resources (coal, oil, gas) for our heat and to feed the machinery of the industrial revolution.

But I'm sure that any effect upon the earth's temperature is just a coincidence. :roll:
Nothing man has done has had any effect on the earth's temperature, IMHO.
One good volcanic eruption will spew an enormous amount of climate changing materials into the atmosphere, and there have been thousands of eruptions throughout time, dwarfing anything man has done or will do.

The only way man's actions could change the climate would be massive nuclear detonations resulting in a predicted nuclear winter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

Coal was burned well before 1859 (150 years ago).
The earliest known use of coal was in China. Coal from the Fu-shun mine in northeastern China may have been used to smelt copper as early as 3,000 years ago. The Chinese thought coal was a stone that could burn.
http://www.energyquest.ca.gov/story/chapter08.html
The very first coal mined that is recorded was coal that was mined during the Roman Occupation of Britain in 55 BC to 436 AD) along the banks of the rivers Clyde and Forth. Later in Britain coal was mined by the monks of Holyrood and Newbattle Abbeys in Scotland and also by the monks of Northumberland. In 1215 coal was mentioned in the Great Charter of King John Here is an interesting tidbit about coal mining. During King Edward’s reign (1239-1307) he imposed the death penalty to anyone using coal because it was believed that it gave off, "poisonous odors." That bias against the use of coal lasted for about two centuries. Most of us "Coal Crackers" think that the first coal discovered in America was in West Virginia or Pennsylvania. Sorry, not so! The first coal discovered in America was in 1673 near present day Utica, Illinois. This is credited to Louis Joliet and Jacques Marquette. It was also Benjamin Franklin who converted a fireplace that he had invented in 1741 to burn coal and subsequently invented the coal stoves that burn both Anthracite as well as Bituminous Coal. Although most of us senior citizens know what went on above the ground, so little is known what went on underground. We know so little about the profession of "coal mining." Coal mining wasn't just a hit and miss type of venture. Most mines were well planned and engineered. The coal companies knew were the veins of coal were located but when it came to inclines, rolls or pitches this was something that was found out when the tunnels and chutes were driven.

The surprising part of our coal heritage is that there is literally millions upon millions of tons of coal (some recoverable, some not) still in the ground after all these years of mining. Most of the easy (getting) coal is already mined. What is left are huge deposits of coal deep in the ground. Under Pottsville is the huge mammoth vein, which is from 100 to 200 feet wide. But with present day technology it is impossible to mine. The vein is 2,000 feet down. The biggest problem would be the expense of mining it along with removing all the water. Years ago they had to pump 20 tons of water for every ton of coal removed. With no concerns on river pollution this wasn't a problem but now with strict environmental laws this water would have to be treated and cleaned before being pumped back into our streams. The Mammoth Vein of coal is also under the Panther Valley, along with the other various veins of coal. In the future with more modern technology and better systems of mining, this coal may be mined. Of course, if a better way of mining and more economical and more environmental friendly fuel is discovered (such as Hydrogen) then the coal will stay where it is forever. Just knowing that the coal reserves are still there in the ground does put us in a more advantageous position over other countries around the world where there coal reserves are gone or where oil reserves are slowly getting depleted.

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Post by stockingfull » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 10:18 pm

No argument, J.C., that coal's been used for a long time.

But not to generate electricity.

It's about the burn rate. Not only are more people burning fossils for heat than ever before but we use them for power, industry, transportation, the whole lot.

I'd be interested to see what percentage of all the coal ever burned by man has been in the last 150 yrs.

BTW, here's a story today on record greenhouse gases. It must be reliable, coming from Fox and all:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/2009/11/23/greenhous ... evel-ever/

 
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Post by Richard S. » Mon. Nov. 23, 2009 10:19 pm

stockingfull wrote: I'll tell you one thing: if this "leak story" is to gain any traction at all,
I suspect the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file is ticking time bomb, as I'm interpreting that file and if it's as bad as that file would suggest then the real travesty will be the loss of irreplaceable records. The original data has been deleted at least according to Phil Jones of the CRU:
Patrick J. Michaels on National Review Online

Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e., quality controlled and homogenized) data.
Only time will tell.


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