Will low NG prices force anthracite prices to begin falling?

lsayre wrote:That ought to last about 25-30 years.

Right. As I have said before, a rail line runs just beyond my swamp -- excuse me, my ecological gem of a wetland. Hundreds of coal cars a day used to pass by. If only one had derailed into my beaver bog, I could have mined it for years.

I'm gonna say yes, cheaper natural gas will lower demand for coal which would lower cost. Seems simple supply and demand. I think I learned about that in high school economics 101. I don't see why it wouldn't. This is my first year with coal, I love burning it but if there was an easier and less expensive way to heat my home why wouldn't anybody? Its why I switched to coal cuz it cost 4 times more to heat with propane. If everyone quit buying propane, wouldn't its price go down? Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about lol. But thats my personal opinion on this issue

No and this is because the mines need diesel and electric to run and those who control the oil price will control the prices for everthing you buy. If everyone stopped useing oil or ng they would just export it and still make money. You can thank Wall st for that.

Some interesting developments have been occuring while this thread was being built over the last few months...

I read in another thread here on NEPA and article posted about how the Chinese are looking for additional steel making raw materials. Several of the bigger mines have signed fairly large contracts to sell anth coal onto the barge bound for China. As far as I'm concerned... I'm looking at a large truckload of Harmony this spring before the Chinese run the price up. They did the same thing with soft coal in recent years, and anth coal won't be any different.

Also, the price of nat gas has been signicant in the energy markets, at least in the north east. With nat gas averaging around $2.20 / MCF, it's some of the cheapest energy out there. Pricing is projected to be down to $1.90 average by September with depressed prices through 2018. The only thing that will change this in the north east is the building of infrastructure to move the nat gas out of this region. The drilling - gangbusters style - is now way ahead of the intallation of pipes to move it. Drillers are packing up and going home in droves. I heard that in order for the drilling/production of nat gas to be profitable, pricing needs to be around $4.00 / MCF. that's double what it is now.

My humble and meaningless opinion is that nat gas and anth coal have very little to do with each other (price wise). The home heating market for coal is relatively small compared to nat gas so I don't see the influence either way. If I had a gas pipe near the house, the old AA 130 would go idle for a while I believe. I think I could pay for the heating unit change and the fuel for the next 6 - 8 years while gas infrastructure catches up.

Tom

I just went to the handy dandy Fuel Comparison Calculator...

The nat gas calculator needs to be changed with a new low. The lowest price per MCF is $5. Even at $5, gas is $6/MMbtu compared to coal at $8.33. If the cost for nat gas was adjusted down to $2.20 the gas cost would be around $3/MMbtu.

That's enough cold hard cash to convince me to change over to gas for 6 years.

But the total price for the gas to the house is what?...
Add in the delivery fees and all the other crap the gas co charges...
The final price is still pretty low but not as cheap as the raw gas price...
Just like electric the bill is split up to make it look cheap...
The actual fuel or power then the distrubution charge and more charges...

Gas here is $1.18 therm or $12.16 MCF...

Electricity rates are down because of NG the way coal used to drive the price down?


http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/business/drop-in-ppl-electricity-rates-likely-to-set-trend-1.1275040#axzz1n9WSwd3s





Kevin

Its simple to figure out the cost of gas. Don't go by the raw price, thats way off. Divide your total charges by your usage. In my case, I divide my total charges by the CCF. For example, my last bill was 81.98 and I used 51 CCF of gas. 81.98/51= ~1.61 per CCF. The cost fluctuates every month depending on the service charges and other stupid fees.
The gas companies try to fool you. They say for the first 30 CCF, the price is X. Then they say the price for every CCF after 30 its 1/2 of X. Thing is, their service charges go way up with more usage.
* For estimation reasons, you can use this number when your calculator calls out for therms, as CCF and THERMs are very close.

I plugged this into my fuel price calculator, factored furnace effeciency into it. Coal is cheaper. Not making a killing on it by any means. I have a stove in my basement because its 75% finished with a bedroom and no heat. Stove heats the whole house anyways.
My cost per million BTU is $15.36 with coal, and $20.12 for gas. That doesnt count the cost to run the furnace blower.