Will low NG prices force anthracite prices to begin falling?

With the cost of natural gas (NG) at low prices not seen for many years, and still falling (due to the glut of NG caused by fracking), will anthracite prices (which have been rising precipitously of late) be forced to reverse and begin to come down, or is anthracite tied so tightly to the price of diesel fuel and/or other issues such as government imposed mine safety regulations and potentially dwindling economically recoverable supply that its price will not be impacted or influenced at all by daily new lows in NG pricing? Since I'm not in anthracite country, and I don't know the answer here, I will withhold my vote until I begin seeing the picture that unfolds from those with more valid opinions than mine.

Natural gas prices have nothing to do with anthracite production. Diesel, electricity, labor cost, and compliance costs are major expenses in mining and processing anthracite. I doubt anyone is getting rich in the anthracite business these days. There may be people making a decent living but not rich. If other forms of energy become so cheap that anthracite can’t compete they will just stop mining and go out of business. I doubt that will happen in my area because there is no natural gas available in my area so the competing heating sources would be oil, electricity, propane, and wood.

As an older gentleman said, once the price of coal goes up, it never comes back down. Seing it's cheep to start,we should be good. I believe the ng will be like fishing, once they have everyone nippleing on the cheep bait, they will set the hook and real our money in, no bag limit. If you have some money to invest, buy into the ng companies and use the dividend check to buy your coal. Not the other way around

I just realized that without casting a vote, I can not see how others have voted. I can only see the text comments. I'm still holding out on voting though.

Coal has been competing against cheap <insert fuel here> for decades. It's a cycle, oil is cheap and everyone is switching to oil. Natural gas is cheap so anyone putting in a new furnace switches to NG.... They enjoy a few years of cheap prices and inevitably the price goes up as more people pile onto the bandwagon and then they are complaining about how much the fuel cost, in 2007 NG was spiking right along with the cost of other fuels. Certainly over the next few years NG prices will be cheap because of the new resources but that is not going to last forever. 5 years from now or whatever it is people will be looking for ways to curb the costs of their heat from NG.

gaw wrote:I doubt that will happen in my area because there is no natural gas available in my area so the competing heating sources would be oil, electricity, propane, and wood.

Exactly, if you want to enjoy cheap NG prices you have to be in an area that has service from the street.

lsayre wrote:I just realized that without casting a vote, I can not see how others have voted. I can only see the text comments. I'm still holding out on voting though.

Click the "view results" link below the options.

It appears our votes are not a secret (the world will know how we casted them), I thaught our vote would be kept confidential behind closed curtains

Yep, what Richard said. Gas & oil constantly fluxuates.It's the GREED factor more then anything else. They set the " HOOK " & walla, they got ya. I'll just ride out my 5 or 10 dollar increase's & be a damn happy camper. I know for me, it doesn't hurt my feelings at all watching people leaving our coal world to return to the world of which ever form of fuel blows smoke up thier skirts. In fact, the more the merrier.Coal will always remain competitive.

Richard S. wrote:Coal has been competing against cheap <insert fuel here> for decades. It's a cycle, oil is cheap and everyone is switching to oil. Natural gas is cheap so anyone putting in a new furnace switches to NG.... They enjoy a few years of cheap prices and inevitably the price goes up as more people pile onto the bandwagon and then they are complaining about how much the fuel cost, in 2007 NG was spiking right along with the cost of other fuels. Certainly over the next few years NG prices will be cheap because of the new resources but that is not going to last forever. 5 years from now or whatever it is people will be looking for ways to curb the costs of their heat from NG.

gaw wrote:I doubt that will happen in my area because there is no natural gas available in my area so the competing heating sources would be oil, electricity, propane, and wood.

Exactly, if you want to enjoy cheap NG prices you have to be in an area that has service from the street.

AA130FIREMAN wrote:It appears our votes are not a secret (the world will know how we casted them), I thaught our vote would be kept confidential behind closed curtains

??????? Nobody can see how you voted including me. I'll have to qualify that by saying I could see how you voted if I wanted too.


---------edit----------

Just to add there is no easy way for me to see how anyone voted, I'd have to go into the database or modify the script to make it easy.

I voted NO--please don't tell anybody. I'm sure it would affect my social standing in the world.

Richard S. wrote:

AA130FIREMAN wrote:It appears our votes are not a secret (the world will know how we casted them), I thaught our vote would be kept confidential behind closed curtains

??????? Nobody can see how you voted including me. I'll have to qualify that by saying I could see how you voted if I wanted too.

When all 5 votes were in for NO, it shure would not be had to firure out Now that their one yes vote, we can rest assured in out secret society

Blaschak went up 10 bucks starting Monday.
So it hasn't yet.

Quite a consensus here. Only 1 of 18 voters so far believes that low NG prices will force a reversal in anthracite pricing. Does that mean that most of you are banking on coal going up in price for at least the next several years?

If so, then what might stop the rise? Would it be when anthracite is as expensive as #2 heating oil, or will it go beyond that and surpass even the cost of propane? Or are there no limits to how long it will continue to rise going forward, and/or how high it might rise? Will we ultimately see an anthracite coal bubble?

I think when people stop buying coal, and the breakers & bagging operations begin to notice the decline in revenue, THEN the price might drop to encourage more people that way.

Richard is 100% on the money. Fuel is like designer clothing - one year everyone is on xxxx band wagon, then the price skyrockets & everyone who switched is now stuck & screwed, then xxxx fuel is the hot item. These days it's best to have multiple sources of heat for your home.

I can tell you this: if coal goes much over $300 a ton here, I'd just start flipping the T-stat on again. I'm going to go with whatever is cheap ... except NG, as it's nowhere near my neighborhood & never will be.

I have switched one house from oil to natural gas, the other gets converted in the spring. Equipment and hard connections are expensive, and not available every where. With that, the energy market is a market, and prices will fluctuate, coal included. If they do not fall, they may stay stable in response to market. For new Green House range, we are planning on natural gas/anthracite combination. Bottom line, I prefer to see the money,what ever the price, stay in the country than paying the angry Mustaffa who wants to kill us.