Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: kootch88 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:14 am

Devil: The drop in oil was because oil had a huge runup and investors started to short it. Why is gold selling off when it was always a safe haven. People got scared and started to take pofits or tried to preserve capital or what was left of it.


Devil,

Oil was oversold, another words, there weren't enough new buyers left in the market to support the higher prices. Many traders positions were maxed out and the only direction the price could go is down. It is actually pretty simple when you understand the mechanisms involved.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Adamiscold On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:23 am

The biggest thing driving the price of oil and gas down right now is the economy and not just here in the states but world wide. But don't worry no matter how long we are in a rescission OPEC will eventually cut production down enough to raise the prices back up to over a $100 a barrel. It seems that is were everybody wants the price to be at, all those companies who put new "green" investments on hold because it's not cost efficient to start them at this time and IRAQ having to cut their budget by 13 billion because of the new lower price they are getting for their oil and don't forget all our companies who wish to start drilling off our shores can't start building those new rigs until the price is back up there to make it worth their wild for such a large investment.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: kootch88 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:54 am

The biggest thing driving the price of oil and gas down right now is the economy and not just here in the states but world wide. But don't worry no matter how long we are in a rescission OPEC will eventually cut production down enough to raise the prices back up to over a $100 a barrel. It seems that is were everybody wants the price to be at, all those companies who put new "green" investments on hold because it's not cost efficient to start them at this time and IRAQ having to cut their budget by 13 billion because of the new lower price they are getting for their oil and don't forget all our companies who wish to start drilling off our shores can't start building those new rigs until the price is back up there to make it worth their wild for such a large investment.


The problem with that line of thought is you must assume the actual market has a worldwide conspiracy going on, and that is difficult to do and keep quiet. There are some numbers that can be seen, like OPEC production numbers, which are habitually not adhered to. Then you have storage limitations and things like that. These are hard numbers that have to be corrupted to manipulate the price of oil significantly for the long term.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Adamiscold On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:31 am

Everything I said about the price of a barrel of oil is true and has been reported by the news including Iraq's budget cuts for next year.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Devil505 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:36 am

So, it sounds like we are all in agreement here. The only thing that could possibly cause an upward turn in U.S. gasoline prices for the foreseeable future, at least in the short term, would be illegal price manipulation, especially a rapid reversal of it's present downward trajectory. Right?
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Adamiscold On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:45 am

The only thing that could possibly cause an upward turn in gasoline prices for the foreseeable future, at least in the short term, would be illegal price manipulation, especially a rapid reversal of it's present downward trajectory. Right?



Right now they say prices are going down because of the "lack" of demand for it even though in the polls people say they are driving more because of the lower gas prices. But next week they could say it's going up because there is too high of a demand for the oil companies to be able to produce it fast enough. :roll:

That isn't something I would call illegal price manipulation but rather how oil business is run. All the investor's want OPEC to cut prices so the price will go up. They were saying after OPEC cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day that it wasn't enough of a cut to "fix" the falling oil prices.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: ken On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:56 am

The OPEC countries are dealing with double didgit inflation. They import everything but oil. They don't want oil at $100 barrel. The high price of oil came back to bite them. The need for less oil in the world because of the economies is helping too with less oil needed. Oil will stay around $60 to $70 for a long time. The problem with drilling more wells , is the lack of refining it. The refinerys are topped out now. They need to build some more. The refinerys are also making the additives to add to fuel to meet requirements. That means less oil refined also. I think it's been 20 or 30 years since a new refinery has been put online in the USA. Gas in some places in Ohio is under $2 gal. People in the USA are happy to pay $2 to $2.50 gal.
Last edited by ken on Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Devil505 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:57 am

Adamiscold wrote:But next week they could say it's going up because there is too high of a demand for the oil companies to be able to produce it fast enough. :roll:



So, if there is illegal price fixing & they simply try to hide it with your above story, how do we find the truth?


Adamiscold wrote:That isn't something I would call illegal price manipulation but rather how oil business is run.


Well Adam, that is something I would call price fixing & I agree with you 100% that it is "how oil business is run.".....ILLEGALLY!

Hopefully, when a new "sheriff" is in town (& the oilmen are out of the White House.......assuming the White House isn't foreclosed on by the bank) maybe we'll finally get some answers....& some people will goto prison.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: coalmeister On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:07 pm

Devil505 wrote:
coalmeister wrote:You've told us this over and over, put your money where your mouth is. A 40# bag does not show commensurate confidence for all the Republican conspiracy blathering crap we have to put up with from you. Put up or shut up as they say. Are we on? :box: :box:


My obvious point is that as soon as the election is over on Tuesday, we all know that those 'Legitimate Market Forces" will cause gasoline prices to start their inexorable climb back up the ladder.


I totally disagree with the above as well. Not going to happen unless the world economic numbers jump for some reason.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: kootch88 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:10 pm

In order for the prices to be manipulated, you would have to have a worldwide conspiracy going with the USA, China, Russia, Venezuela, Indonesia, all of OPEC and the rest of the oil producing countries involved. How hard would that be to get everyone to cooperate?
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Devil505 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:11 pm

coalmeister wrote:I totally disagree with the above as well. Not going to happen unless the world economic numbers jump for some reason.


So if U.S. gasoline prices start to inexplicably rise by the end of this month, you'll agree it is illegal price fixing? (A felony under U.S. law)
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: coalmeister On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:12 pm

Adamiscold wrote:
The only thing that could possibly cause an upward turn in gasoline prices for the foreseeable future, at least in the short term, would be illegal price manipulation, especially a rapid reversal of it's present downward trajectory. Right?



Right now they say prices are going down because of the "lack" of demand for it even though in the polls people say they are driving more because of the lower gas prices. But next week they could say it's going up because there is too high of a demand for the oil companies to be able to produce it fast enough. :roll:


Don't forget, driving is only a part of the usage pie. Industry is another large user. Business is so slow in China they quit buying steel scrap from us, and factories are closing left and right. :dancing: :dancing: :up: :cheers:
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: coalmeister On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:15 pm

Devil505 wrote:
coalmeister wrote:I totally disagree with the above as well. Not going to happen unless the world economic numbers jump for some reason.


So if U.S. gasoline prices start to inexplicably rise by the end of this month, you'll agree it is illegal price fixing? (A felony under U.S. law)


Yes, if the world economy is not improving. Unless of course if we were to bomb Iran or a terrorist blows up something or some other big and verifiable event.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: traderfjp On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:19 pm

These numbers are suspect but they say that China is still growing at an 8% pace.
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Re: Why Are Gasoline & Home Heating Fuels So Expensive?

PostBy: Devil505 On: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:20 pm

coalmeister wrote:Yes, if the world economy is not improving. Unless of course if we were to bomb Iran or a terrorist blows up something or some other big and verifiable event.



OK.....We'll revisit this thread..Local Gasoline Price on 11/30 & compare gas prices.

Edit:

I'll even publicly go out on a limb here & predict the following:

(looks deeply into his crystal ball...........)

if Obama wins & the Repubs are thrashed in Congress

1. U.S. gasoline prices will rise by...probably just a few cents by 11/30
2. Will be back up to around $3.00 per gal. by X-mass


If McCain wins (& M'Connell & E. Dole retain their seats in Congress)..

1.....gas prices will be up by 5-8 cents by 11/30

2. Will be up around $4.00 per gal. by X-mass
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