Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: lsayre On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:20 am

Statistics I found indicate that for the past decade health care costs have been rising by about 8% annually, while wages are rising at only about 4% annually. It now costs an average of about $13,400 to provide annual health care to the average family. The average family currently has combined income of about $50,000. Lets see what this will bring in the future if the current trend continues unabated.

The reliable yet simple "Rule of 72" states that the "doubling period" for anything can be determined by dividing the annualized percentage rate of growth (inflation) into 72.

The doubling rate for health care costs is therefore 72/8 = 9 years
The doubling rate for a families income is therefore 72/4 = 18 years

Therefore at the current rates of health care inflation vs. wage growth, 18 years from now things will look like this:

Average family income = $100,000
Average cost for family health care = $53,600

And in yet another 18 years (36 years total) things will look like this:

Average family income = $200,000
Average cost for family health care = $214.400

And this is why the current abomination of annualized health care inflation vs. wage growth (inflation) will cease regardless of what form health care takes.

The moral of the story is that if we permit Obamacare, and the rate of health care cost increases stops, it will not be because of Obamacare, but rather because the current historical trend simply can not continue into the future as it has in the historical past. Therefore watch where you give credit for the inevitable stop in the rise of health care costs, lest you give credit to Obamacare without giving it much thought.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
Albert Bartlett, retired Nuclear Physicist
lsayre
 
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: franco b On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 12:41 pm

It will continue to go up by being more and more subsidized by government. Also service will go down which is the same as higher cost. Organized crime which our healthcare system has become will not be deterred by higher costs. These can always be manipulated to look like something else.
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: lsayre On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:45 pm

franco b wrote:It will continue to go up by being more and more subsidized by government. Also service will go down which is the same as higher cost. Organized crime which our healthcare system has become will not be deterred by higher costs. These can always be manipulated to look like something else.


Soon there will not be any money left with which our nation can play the socialist subsidy game. Current Federal Reserve shenanigans aside, money will not continue to indefinitely grow on trees (or at the very least we will soon reach a point where we come to learn the hard way that there is a big difference between real wealth and unlimited paper currency). If health care does not stop rising faster than incomes go up it will soon be game over for far more than just health care.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
Albert Bartlett, retired Nuclear Physicist
lsayre
 
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: SMITTY On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:53 pm

lsayre wrote: ....... If health care does not stop rising faster than incomes go up it will soon be game over for far more than just health care. ......

Sadly, I think this is the only way things will change ...
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: lsayre On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:58 pm

SMITTY wrote:Sadly, I think this is the only way things will change ...


Quite possibly, but I hope you are wrong. The 2012 presidential election will be an indicator of how much we collectively do or do not understand the hard limits and reality of the exponential function.
lsayre
 
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: franco b On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:02 pm

lsayre wrote:Quite possibly, but I hope you are wrong. The 2012 presidential election will be an indicator of how much we collectively do or do not understand the hard limits and reality of the exponential function.

It has to get bad enough for there to be enough political will to make meaningful change. Meanwhile the insiders get fat.
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: lsayre On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:04 pm

franco b wrote:It has to get bad enough for there to be enough political will to make meaningful change. Meanwhile the insiders get fat.


I fully agree! I also agree that medical care itself will get worse as it gets more costly.
lsayre
 
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: rberq On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:09 pm

Well, lots of brave predictions about trends. Lsayre, we have to wait 36 years to see if you are right. And if healthcare costs DO rise more slowly when the reforms are phased in, you have already hedged your bet by saying that would happen anyway. So President Obama gets no credit either way. You should work for a casino -- the house always wins in the end.
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: jpete On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:13 pm

Why not take a vacation and get treatment at the same time?

http://www.medretreat.com/

Overseas healthcare saves you up to 80% of the cost here in the U.S.
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: rberq On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:29 pm

jpete wrote:Why not take a vacation and get treatment at the same time?
http://www.medretreat.com/

I just read an article saying health care is excellent in India (for the well-off), but still much cheaper than in the US, and the best hospitals there accommodate lots of foreigners who want quality at a good price.
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Re: Why health care costs will stop rising, Obamacare or not

PostBy: jpete On: Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:51 pm

rberq wrote:
jpete wrote:Why not take a vacation and get treatment at the same time?
http://www.medretreat.com/

I just read an article saying health care is excellent in India (for the well-off), but still much cheaper than in the US, and the best hospitals there accommodate lots of foreigners who want quality at a good price.


I was watching a thing about this the other day. Most of the doctors are trained here so they are equal quality as any here.

they say including airfare, etc, it's still cheaper than the same procedure here.

Private rooms, a full staff of RN's and the recovery room is a grass hut on a beach somewhere. :)
jpete
 
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