New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: Richard S. On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:14 pm

http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/15491.php

An international team including scientists from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) has published a reconstruction of the climate in northern Europe over the last 2,000 years based on the information provided by tree-rings. Professor Dr. Jan Esper's group at the Institute of Geography at JGU used tree-ring density measurements from sub-fossil pine trees originating from Finnish Lapland to produce a reconstruction reaching back to 138 BC. In so doing, the researchers have been able for the first time to precisely demonstrate that the long-term trend over the past two millennia has been towards climatic cooling. "We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low," says Esper. "Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy, as they will influence the way today's climate changes are seen in context of historical warm periods." The new study has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.


For those unfamiliar with these types of graphs, the blue is the actual data points, the white is smoothed line of the data points and the red is the overall trend.

Image
Richard S.
 
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: Dann757 On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:20 pm

Yeah I was wondering where Al Gore is in this heat wave. :!: Maybe he didn't want to come out of one of his air-conditioned mansions :D Or maybe he's plotting his next move with the UN in one of their air conditioned offices that we pay for :)
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: rberq On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:09 pm

Interesting. One book I read speculated that global warming might counteract a long-term cooling trend and thereby save the northern hemisphere from the next glaciation. But let's not applaud yet. This study focuses on Northern Europe, which may or may not be particularly relevant. It reports 1 degree centigrade of "global warming" (so is it saying global warming is real?) partially offset by 0.6 degrees of cooling trend. The graph (at least on my PC) is truncated at the right-hand end. Looking at a complete graph, the last hundred years at least shows a significant jump in the smoothed (white) line. The jump doesn't seem any more dramatic than others on the graph which have then returned to the trend line and below; so there's no argument either way in these years. But the straight trend line stops at about 1950; if it were continued to the end of the data its downward slope would be somewhat less steep. And if in fact global warming is serious, then a two-thousand-year trend is important but not a good measure of what is happening now.

So I'm not really arguing with the information in this post -- just not ready to jump to the easy conclusion that there's nothing new going on since the industrial revolution.


-----edit by Richard-----

If you can't see the full image here you can view it by clicking this link: http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_pres ... limate.jpg
Last edited by Richard S. on Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:14 am, edited 4 times in total.
Reason: I've hot linked to the image in the original post, please don't upload images you don't own here
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: lsayre On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:12 pm

Look to the right.
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: rberq On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:18 pm

lsayre wrote:Look to the right.

Thanks. Found it. Also edited my post saying I couldn't find it, so now nobody will know what we are talking about. :P
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: samhill On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:53 pm

On the weather today they said that this has been the warmest 6 month period in the U.S. since they starting keeping records & they said it looks like it isn't going to end soon. I had always heard that a warm summer meant a cold winter so maybe an extra couple of tons wouldn't hurt if you can afford it, it won't go bad either way.
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: coalnewbie On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:59 pm

Yes Sam, I have that feeling too. Bad winter coming based on no data of course.
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: lsayre On: Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:26 pm

I can't tell you what the weather will be like looking forward, but I did come across some interesting weather trivia. On average the warmest day of the year statistically comes one month post the longest day (longest daylight day) of the year, and on average the coldest day of the year statistically comes one month post the shortest day (shortest daylight day) of the year. I have no idea why this would be so, but apparently it is.
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: Richard S. On: Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:07 am

rberq wrote:It reports 1 degree centigrade of "global warming" (so is it saying global warming is real?) partially offset by 0.6 degrees of cooling trend.


It also shows similar temperatures that we're seeing now during two periods in the past.

The graph (at least on my PC) is truncated at the right-hand end.


That's due to the formatting, it wasn't intentional. On my screen it only takes up half the available space.



But the straight trend line stops at about 1950; if it were continued to the end of the data its downward slope would be somewhat less steep.


I don't know how they handled it here for the smooth lined and data points because I didn't read the entire paper but tree ring data does not agree with instrumental records after the 60's. It indicates cooling and they have no explanation as to why. That's where the hockey stick comes in and the "hide the decline" comment.

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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: Richard S. On: Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:21 am

lsayre wrote:I can't tell you what the weather will be like looking forward, but I did come across some interesting weather trivia. On average the warmest day of the year statistically comes one month post the longest day (longest daylight day) of the year, and on average the coldest day of the year statistically comes one month post the shortest day (shortest daylight day) of the year. I have no idea why this would be so, but apparently it is.


Probably for the same reason your boiler temperature will continue to rise after the stoker has turned off. How's that for great on topic explanation. :D
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: wsherrick On: Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:46 am

samhill wrote:On the weather today they said that this has been the warmest 6 month period in the U.S. since they starting keeping records & they said it looks like it isn't going to end soon. I had always heard that a warm summer meant a cold winter so maybe an extra couple of tons wouldn't hurt if you can afford it, it won't go bad either way.


Your Weather Guy or Gal, whomever he is, is quite wrong. There was a much warmer period during the mid '30's, 1950's and in the early 1980's. This warm spell has been counter acted by record cool areas across the Western Part of the Country. The pro Warministas won't tell you those facts. And if we have a cold and snowy Winter they will say that's because of Global Warming as well. The Weather depends upon two basic things, the big yellow ball up in the sky and how much heat from that big yellow thing gets absorbed into the ocean and then how fast it radiates back out again. The Sun has entered a long term slow period, the temperatures and weather on the Earth is slowly beginning to reflect that. In 10 years there will be no, "Global Warming." Then after we are all long dead the Sun's activity will again increase and the Earth will warm back up.

Your advice about buying plenty of coal ahead of time is entirely correct, however.

Here is an article about this very thing:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/08/why-the-u-s-east-coast-heatwave-was-not-unusual-nor-the-number-of-record-temperatures-unprecedented/

Here's a list of some of the record lows in the West and Southwest as the Hot Weather built Eastward.

http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/deserts-normal-highs/
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: samhill On: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:51 am

I really think it's not global warming but instead changing weather patterns, it has all happened before (be it slower or faster) but climate change could just be coming. After that first big Quake & resulting Tsunami a while back I had heard that the earth had actually shifted on it's axis a bit as a result instead of normal patterns. In theory all the land mass above & below is floating on a molten liquid or so they say so it could be that we shifted a bit more than normal.
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: dll On: Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:12 am

The catastrophic global alarmists are trying hard to come up with some new doomsday predictions to limit or eliminate CO2 emissions, even after all their other predictions have failed or are in the process of failing.

Here is one that they do not want you to see.
http://notrickszone.com/2012/04/27/russian-lake-vostok-researchers-say-ice-age-is-unavoidable/
A team of Russian scientists bored through 4,000 meters of ice in Antarctica to reach the bottom of lake Vostoc on 5 February 2012. Project leader Vladimir Lipenkov said that it will be very important for studying climate change on Earth. According to Ria Novosti here is what Vladimir Lipenkov, member of the Russian expedition said concerning the millions of years old Vostok Antarctic lake.

“A new ice age is unavoidable, but will occur in 10,000 years at the earliest. With respect to solar activity, the increase in energy emission (warming) was indeed the most important event of the 20th century.”
and:
“The start of the temperature decline can be expected in 2012 or 2013. By 2035 or 2045 the strength of the sun will again reach a minimum. A strong cold will then grip the Earth 15 to 20 years later.”

Here is the graph they used for their predictions.http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/vostok/graphics/tempplot5.gif

An ice age came upon us
but there was nothing we could do
We’d spent all our money
to reduce CO2.
Last edited by dll on Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:50 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: samhill On: Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:57 am

Wsherrick, I guess your right my weatherman must have joined a conspiracy of others that keep their local records, perhaps you should plublish your findings to prove them wrong. They are not talking about global patterns but their local & regional records, so just maybe they could be correct.
http://www.post-gazette.com/weather/201 ... 1207110220
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Re: New Study shows Global Cooling Since the Roman Times

PostBy: Richard S. On: Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:17 pm

Part of the problem Sam is the accuracy of the data that can be influenced by a lot of things. For example if you have temperature station that was in a rural and undeveloped area that slowly was developed. That development will cause warming. Keep in mind we're only talking about fractions of a degree where global warming is concerned.
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