Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: lsayre On: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:15 pm

I caught a snippet of an Internet radio broadcast today in which it was stated that the average fracked NG well is past peak and heading into the terminal output decline phase at about 4 months post initial production. Can that possibly be correct?
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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: coalnewbie On: Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:18 pm

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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: jpete On: Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:25 pm

That article was written 6 months ago.

What is NG going for now? Is it the $8 he predicted? I honestly don't know.
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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: lsayre On: Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:50 pm

The problem becoming apparent through actual practice is that although the massive amount of new wells being drilled is causing a surge in NG availability, the individual wells themselves are quite often dying before the expense of creating and then sustaining and maintaining them has come close to being recouped. It is only by rapidly moving on to new wells (and new short term surges of NG flow) that the very Ponzi like shell game can be perpetuated. But eventually the debts left behind from wells that were originally thought to have productive lives of 40 years on average, but which instead are showing signs of dying within months, and are becoming cold dead within a few years, will catch up with those poking the endless stream of new holes and a wave of bankruptcies will ensue when debts from past peak wells from the haunting and not too distant past begin to exceed profits from new wells.

Off topic, but speculation has it that the Baaken oil fields will soon be seen in a similar light.
Last edited by lsayre on Fri Apr 12, 2013 5:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: coalnewbie On: Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:03 am

If you read oilprice.com you will get world class analysts who spend all day trying to work out the peak oil theory from the we got plenty disagreeing. So I guess non one really knows. Only a stupid President would actively kill a source of 50% of our energy we need ALL energy sources. Common sense tells me that cheap energy defines growth.

There are always govt idiots trying to invent reasons for being alive. Take the latest sulfur reductions in gasoline.

The EPA cited the following justification for the tighter standards:

The new standards would annually prevent:

• Between 820 and 2,400 premature deaths
• 3,200 hospital admissions and asthma-related emergency room visits
• 22,000 asthma exacerbations
• 23,000 upper and lower respiratory symptoms in children
• 1.8 million lost school days, work days and minor-restricted activities

http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/ ... iners.html

I do know epidemiology and there is no way any study they can dream up statistically qualifies that c rap. All I suspect is higher costs for energy than we need to pay.
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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: Richard S. On: Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:59 am

coalnewbie wrote: So I guess non one really knows.


The only thing that is certain is that it will peak. Anyone trying to analyze this has to rely on outdated or non existent data. That information is tightly controlled by both nations and companies.




The new standards would annually prevent:

• Between 820 and 2,400 premature deaths
• 3,200 hospital admissions and asthma-related emergency room visits
• 22,000 asthma exacerbations
• 23,000 upper and lower respiratory symptoms in children
• 1.8 million lost school days, work days and minor-restricted activities

I do know epidemiology and there is no way any study they can dream up statistically qualifies that c rap.


It's a linear dose assessment and every time you see statistics like that it's the same methodology, every particle of pollution is considered equally as hazardous regardless of exposure. Suppose we have some hard data where 10 people fell off a 20 foot ladder and 5 died. From that it's assumed that for every 200 foot a population is to fall 5 will die. If 20 people fall off a 10 foot ladder 5 still die, if 100 people fall off a 2 foot ladder 5 still die and when millions fall off a ladder that is fractions of an inch high 5 still die from the fall.
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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: carlherrnstein On: Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:35 am

I kind of wondered about that cause the rock they are spliting is nonpourus so the only gas they can get is gas that is freed up when the well was "fracked" so more gas cant migrate out of the rocks pores it has to be where a crack happened to form or else it stays in the ground.
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Re: Fracked NG wells past peak within only a few months?

PostBy: oros35 On: Mon Apr 15, 2013 11:40 am

lsayre wrote:I caught a snippet of an Internet radio broadcast today in which it was stated that the average fracked NG well is past peak and heading into the terminal output decline phase at about 4 months post initial production. Can that possibly be correct?

This is correct. (or at least mostly)

A well will produce for appx 30 years, greatly dependent on geological conditions. It's peak is typically within the first year. It's possible that the well will produce as much gas in the first year as it will the rest of it's life. That doesn't mean the remaining 29 years it doesn't produce though.
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