franco b wrote:I don't think mainstream economists make the most reliable predictors since they are largely responsible for the current mess. Peter Schiff is one non mainstream economist who has been accurate in his predictions and in general agrees with the direction of Williams post.
First, perhaps it is politicians and lobbyists, not economists, who are responsible for the current mess.
Also, I said please, no shills for gold, which is what Peter Schiff appears to be. He predicted gold at $5,000 by late 2011. Then in 2012 he predicted again that it would hit $5,000 by later this year. He might be right since he has about 7 months to go, but currently gold is under $1,300, down $400 from when he made his prediction. Peter DID apparently predict a downturn in 2007-2008. However, he seems to predict nothing BUT downturns, so next time we have one he certainly will have predicted it again. I’m sure some of what he says makes sense, but he strikes me mostly as a self-promoter whose niche is doom-saying. Mark Twain captured Peter’s style: “A man who goes around with a prophecy-gun ought never to get discouraged. If he will keep up his heart and fire at everything he sees he is bound to hit something by and by.”
I know even the most mainstream of economists disagree with one another. But I'll repeat my question: ARE there any forecasting financial catastrophe?