47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: rberq On: Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:25 pm

franco b wrote:I don't think mainstream economists make the most reliable predictors since they are largely responsible for the current mess. Peter Schiff is one non mainstream economist who has been accurate in his predictions and in general agrees with the direction of Williams post.

First, perhaps it is politicians and lobbyists, not economists, who are responsible for the current mess.

Also, I said please, no shills for gold, which is what Peter Schiff appears to be. He predicted gold at $5,000 by late 2011. Then in 2012 he predicted again that it would hit $5,000 by later this year. He might be right since he has about 7 months to go, but currently gold is under $1,300, down $400 from when he made his prediction. Peter DID apparently predict a downturn in 2007-2008. However, he seems to predict nothing BUT downturns, so next time we have one he certainly will have predicted it again. I’m sure some of what he says makes sense, but he strikes me mostly as a self-promoter whose niche is doom-saying. Mark Twain captured Peter’s style: “A man who goes around with a prophecy-gun ought never to get discouraged. If he will keep up his heart and fire at everything he sees he is bound to hit something by and by.”

I know even the most mainstream of economists disagree with one another. But I'll repeat my question: ARE there any forecasting financial catastrophe?
rberq
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: rberq On: Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:42 pm

SMITTY wrote:Just plain common sense should tell anyone with half a working brain cell that, if you spend 17 TRILLION dollars you don't have ... eventually, the whole thing is going to come crashing down in a big, messy pile.

It's hard to think about numbers like 17 trillion dollars. But remember that United States gross national product is over 16 trillion.
So, shrink the numbers by a factor of 100 million to put them in perspective. If you had an annual income of $160,000, could you afford a house mortgage of $170,000? The answer is yes, easily, as long as you stop frittering away cash on GMC Jimmys and Blazers and the like. :o
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: lsayre On: Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:24 pm

rberq wrote:
SMITTY wrote:Just plain common sense should tell anyone with half a working brain cell that, if you spend 17 TRILLION dollars you don't have ... eventually, the whole thing is going to come crashing down in a big, messy pile.

It's hard to think about numbers like 17 trillion dollars. But remember that United States gross national product is over 16 trillion.
So, shrink the numbers by a factor of 100 million to put them in perspective. If you had an annual income of $160,000, could you afford a house mortgage of $170,000? The answer is yes, easily, as long as you stop frittering away cash on GMC Jimmys and Blazers and the like. :o


According to Laurence Kotlikoff (who served as a senior economist on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers and is a professor of economics at Boston University) the real national debt is $211 trillion.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: franco b On: Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:35 pm

rberq wrote:
SMITTY wrote:Just plain common sense should tell anyone with half a working brain cell that, if you spend 17 TRILLION dollars you don't have ... eventually, the whole thing is going to come crashing down in a big, messy pile.

It's hard to think about numbers like 17 trillion dollars. But remember that United States gross national product is over 16 trillion.
So, shrink the numbers by a factor of 100 million to put them in perspective. If you had an annual income of $160,000, could you afford a house mortgage of $170,000? The answer is yes, easily, as long as you stop frittering away cash on GMC Jimmys and Blazers and the like. :o

No you could not afford the mortgage if it jumps by another 100,000 every year as our debt does, except it jumps by a trillion. Bad analogy.

GDP also reflects more and more in government spending which hardly resembles wealth building.
franco b
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: rberq On: Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:45 pm

franco b wrote:No you could not afford the mortgage if it jumps by another 100,000 every year as our debt does, except it jumps by a trillion. Bad analogy.

You make a good point. People get in trouble eventually when they keep taking second mortgages. Though in my scaled-down example the debt would be growing by 10,000 a year, not 100,000, AND Smitty's income would be going up somewhat as well. There have been times when the government has run a surplus, when the debt could be paid down if we had the discipline to do it. The bottom line is, the current situation of debt roughly equal to GNP is quite manageable. What is lacking is the public and political will to manage it properly.

lsayre wrote:According to Laurence Kotlikoff (who served as a senior economist on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers and is a professor of economics at Boston University) the real national debt is $211 trillion.

the real debt is about $87 trillion. Can that be right?
Kotlikoff: “That’s wrong. It’s $222 trillion….What you have to do is look at the present value of all the expenditures now through the end of time.”


Ronald Reagan gave us Kotlikoff, David Stockman’s trickle-down economics, Ollie North, and ketchup as a vegetable. Was Kotlikoff using the Mayan calendar to figure out the end of time?
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: franco b On: Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:48 pm

rberq wrote:You make a good point. People get in trouble eventually when they keep taking second mortgages. Though in my scaled-down example the debt would be growing by 10,000 a year, not 100,000, AND Smitty's income would be going up somewhat as well. There have been times when the government has run a surplus, when the debt could be paid down if we had the discipline to do it. The bottom line is, the current situation of debt roughly equal to GNP is quite manageable. What is lacking is the public and political will to manage it properly.

An agreeable person is one who agrees with me. So said Ambrose Bierce. If I tease this a bit by golly you do agree with me.

In the above you say this system will eventually lead to trouble but can be handled in the present.

You then conclude that the political will to change it is lacking so it then becomes ipso facto untenable, and Smitty goes broke eventually.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: rberq On: Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:38 pm

franco b wrote:In the above you say this system will eventually lead to trouble but can be handled in the present.
You then conclude that the political will to change it is lacking so it then becomes ipso facto untenable, and Smitty goes broke eventually.

What the hell, he'd probably spend it on beer anyway and go broke that way.
I wasn't trying to be difficult asking for reputable economists who support the imminent-disaster theory.
It is two very different things to say, (1) We are on dangerous ground and we need to shape up, vs. (2) We're already screwed, there's nothing to be done to save ourselves.
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