47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: lsayre On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 1:32 pm

And if you assume that the real rate of unemployment today is closer to 13%, that means by 2034 a whopping 60% of working class Americans will potentially be PERMANENTLY unemployed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01 ... 16931.html
lsayre
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: Wood'nCoal On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 2:15 pm

Hey...Barry's on top of it, he's gonna save us all!
Wood'nCoal
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: samhill On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 3:42 pm

I wonder why everything now seems to be 47% but anyway it will be a lot worse since the more jobs loss means less demand which in turn slows the robots down.
W&C, at least a blank page is neutral, the con book had a list of countries to move to. They created many jobs but just not in this country. :cry:
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: labman On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 5:10 pm

The plus side, if any is that at least I won't be here to see it.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: rberq On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 7:44 pm

lsayre wrote:... if you assume that the real rate of unemployment today is closer to 13%, that means by 2034 a whopping 60% of working class Americans will potentially be PERMANENTLY unemployed.

And yet, if increasing automation works as projected, there will be enough capacity to produce as much or more than now. Years ago I read speculation on this sort of a future, asking what society will do with all the goods produced more or less for "free". Do we become a world where there are a few thousand billionaires and trillionaires, and many billions of people -- essentially slaves -- with little to eat and slums to live in? Not a very stable society .... Do we forever pay good middle-class incomes (unemployment insurance) to those for whom there are no jobs? That goes against our current ideas of "responsibility", but what is the alternative, and what other use would there be for the abundant production? There will still be a need for some people to work, and how do we (or do we) compensate them over and above those willing to work but for whom there are no jobs? And why would they bother to work, anyway, if they can be paid comfortably while remaining unemployed?

Projections of the future are always a bit fanciful. If you don't think so, read some Popular Science magazines from 60 years ago, then look and see if your flying car is in your driveway as predicted. However, we are already seeing the beginnings of the unneeded middle class, as the economy gradually recovers without the job market recovering. Really, this is a scary situation. Politically the problem is now being expressed as one of income inequality, which in a sense it is, but that characterization enables the politicians to rant about class warfare, and welfare for the undeserving poor -- who are only poor because there are no jobs. As production capacity goes up and up and up, we must NOT let the politicians frame it as a zero-sum game where my gain is your loss. It is more a case of there being plenty to go around, if only the plenty can be distributed in a fashion to maintain a stable society.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: franco b On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:01 pm

The fruits of increased productivity have already been stolen and will continue to be by the ever increasing number of those employed by government with ever increasing benefits. The Fascist coalition of government and big business will grow stronger until the final collapse.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: KLook On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 11:15 pm

And what do some of you predict will rise from the ashes of collapse? Is it a controlled collapse engineered by the elite? Is there a world wide plan for the "after"? Do you think the elite of the world do not discuss these things?

Kevin
KLook
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: grumpy On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 11:21 pm

I don't know, yes,, yes,, and yes..
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: franco b On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 11:42 pm

The interest rate time bomb is just beginning to tick. To hold it down the Fed will have to create money at an ever increasing rate until it becomes almost worthless.

What comes after depends very much on what leaders arise and if they reflect conservative or socialist belief on the part of the population. Current policy has made the rich richer so they are likely to get the blame rather than our Fascist government.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: anthony7812 On: Sun Jan 19, 2014 11:46 pm

This entire subject scared the bejesus outta me. So I grabbed it by the horn and did something about it. I'm the guy who programs and fixes the automated equipment. ;) learning and working in the field let me tell you, the whole idea of automation fixing itself is abunch of ccccrap! It may autotune to temporally fix the issue but let me tell ya we are soooo many decades of a autovalve or solenoid fixing itself. So far I have never witnessed a prox switch change itself out lol. His geared more towards manufacturing so may not apply to all job fields. Like office workers, ever see what SAP can do???? I have watched that company eliminate lots of office jobs.
anthony7812
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: Richard S. On: Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:55 am

rberq wrote:And yet, if increasing automation works as projected, there will be enough capacity to produce as much or more than now. Years ago I read speculation on this sort of a future, asking what society will do with all the goods produced more or less for "free". Do we become a world where there are a few thousand billionaires and trillionaires, and many billions of people -- essentially slaves -- with little to eat and slums to live in?


How do you have billionaires if there is no one to buy their product? This is really the fundamental question because our capitalistic society depends on both producers and consumers. If the hamburger flippers job is taken over by a robot that is one less consumer of the hamburgers you are producing.

As we move along here there is going to need to be some fundamental changes in our society, I don't see how a capitalistic society can survive. As this evolves there will certainly be more jobs in the tech sector designing, building and maintaining robots but what happens when even those jobs are taken over by robots? On top of that you have computers like Watson that can basically "think". Many people really don't realize how fundamentally different that computer is compared to the one you are using.
Richard S.
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: Richard S. On: Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:57 am

anthony7812 wrote:This entire subject scared the bejesus outta me. So I grabbed it by the horn and did something about it. I'm the guy who programs and fixes the automated equipment. ;) learning and working in the field let me tell you, the whole idea of automation fixing itself is abunch of ccccrap! It may autotune to temporally fix the issue but let me tell ya we are soooo many decades of a autovalve or solenoid fixing itself. So far I have never witnessed a prox switch change itself out lol. His geared more towards manufacturing so may not apply to all job fields. Like office workers, ever see what SAP can do???? I have watched that company eliminate lots of office jobs.


That's how things are now but that's not how they are going to stay, the inevitable march of progress can't be stopped.
Richard S.
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: rberq On: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:47 am

Richard S. wrote:[Now] you have computers like Watson that can basically "think". Many people really don't realize how fundamentally different that computer is compared to the one you are using.

That can potentially eliminate a high proportion of white collar jobs, just like all the factory jobs that have vanished. Watson is still an intermediate step, but more will follow.
rberq
 
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: Flyer5 On: Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:53 am

AHhhh! The rise of the machines. Hell even us smaller companies are automating. The grates used to be drilled by hand till shortly after we bought the company. After drilling a bunch of 110k grates on a drill press I rebuilt and upgraded an old CNC mill. Now I have it drilling doors and other pieces. It does not screw off it has a great work ethic and it never complains to HR when I yell at it and call it names. We have not had any major price increases since we took over, even though everything we put into the stoves has gone up in price. Its out of necessity that the same jobs are done at less cost.
Jerry ( the old owner) had a Chinese distributor give him a price on grates already drilled cheaper than he could buy the blank grates locally. He chose to stay American. We had the same co come back a few yrs later and the price was about the same as it cost's us now with us doing the drilling. Their costs went up and ours decreased. So we are doing good because we can compete using an American product and quality against buying from China. Mostly because of automation.
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Re: 47% of all existing jobs will be automated by 2034

PostBy: anthony7812 On: Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:13 am

Flyer5 wrote: I rebuilt and upgraded an old CNC mill. Now I have it drilling doors and other pieces..

Perfect example, You can eliminate just say 3 jobs by one automated machine. which IMO is great if your a business owner.(I am only guessing I have no idea how many people or man hours are needed to do this job) The point that cant be overlooked is you say YOU rebuilt it. Thats a job. And its a job thats in demand and will only rise as Automation advances. SMARTER SKILLED LABOR is going to be the backbone soon. Any electrician/programmer will tell you... relays to PLC's are a perfect example of this.
anthony7812
 
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