Oil

Oil

PostBy: daveuz On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:05 pm

while poking around on the Hilkoil site I found this link.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
This link is broken, either the page no longer exists or there is some other issue like a typo.
go to the Hilkoil site and you will find a few more. You will have to go to the the Home page than products page and the links are near the bottem , titled "Oil news". Interesting read.
daveuz
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: Ed.A On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:18 pm

Interestingly we were told in 1970 that we were going to run out in 40yrs.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7201744.stm A huge natural gas field has been found a short distance off Rio de Janeiro's coastline, Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, says.
The company believes the new field, Jupiter, could match the recently discovered Tupi oil field in size.
Tupi is thought to be one of the largest fields discovered in the past 20 years.

Oops, those damn experts seem to have average hit rate about as good as our weather "people" do.
Ed.A
 
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: Alaska Channing III/ '94 Stoker II
Coal Size/Type: Rice

Re: Oil

PostBy: daveuz On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:33 pm

I would like to add that I make no claim either way to the validity of the link I posted. I thought it was an interesting read. I read Ed's post and did find that the link I posted did cover this type of thing where oil/gas fields are deep below the surface and when you take into account the amount of money and "oil" to get it out meets or exceeds what is produced it is again going to be expensive or not worth producing. here is aquite from Ed's link. Analysts were more cautious, pointing out the difficulty of extracting Tupi's oil from beneath deep layers of rock and salt.
daveuz
 


Re: Oil

PostBy: daveuz On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:44 pm

quote from the link I provided: "What about that giant oil find in the Gulf of Mexico? It's suppossed to be huge."





Chevron's recent find in the Gulf of Mexico, nicknamed "Jack 2", is estimated to hold between 3 billiion and 15 billion barrels of oil. Source Let's assume, for the sake of illustration, Chevron's most optimistic estimate of 15 billion barrels is the most accurate estimate. A fifteen billion barrel field puts the global peak (the halfway mark) off by 7.5 billion barrels. This is less than a four month supply at current rates of consumption. At projected rates of oil consumption for the year 2015 it's less than a three month supply.



This does not even account for the fact this "huge find" is almost 6 miles below the ocean and thus much more expensive to develop than traditional oil fields where the oil typically bubbles up to ground level when first discovered.



The truth is the Jack 2 field is really a sign of how desperate Big Oil companies are getting when it come to replacing their rapidly dwindling reserve base. There is no reason to look for oil 270 miles off the coast and 6 miles below the ocean surface unless cheaper and easier to extract sources have already been exhausted. This is the whole point Peak Oil "chicken littles" have been making for nearly 50 years: once the peak is reached oil will still be available but only at a tremendous energetic and financial cost.
Last edited by daveuz on Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
daveuz
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: upstate On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:48 pm

Thats it, sell everything, the worlds ending. Stock up on coal and canned goods. Hope its not true, I got a long way to go before I get to the end.
upstate
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: daveuz On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:02 pm

I didn't take the link as a "sky is falling" type thing but more to be aware of the lifestyle change the people will have to do by themselves or wake up one day surprised . I think this coal forum in itself is a good example of people getting control of at least part of thier energy consumption.
daveuz
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: Richard S. On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:09 pm

Been there done that with this thread: Future of anthracite coal

That chart is probably based on the worst case scnario predictions of this DOE report:


http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petr ... ply04.html

I wouldn't totally discount it but again that's worse case scnario. The biggest issue about any of these predictions is the oil producing nations of the world keep this data to themselves. The U.S really has no clue how much oil the Saudis have or how their oil fields are doing however the largest one Ghawar has been pumping oil for more than half century, one guesstimate I read said half the recovery they are is water that is pumped into the field to extend its life. What is significant about that is that it's the largest oil filed in the world and provides a significant percentage of the worlds oil supply. Their other oil fields are also up in age. There is alos speculation that they have damaged some of them through ove exploitation.

Bear in mind all the the worlds largest oil field were discovered like 50+ years ago have been exploited since then, new discoveries are trivial compared to them.


Interestingly we were told in 1970 that we were going to run out in 40yrs.


That I believe was based on the research of Dr Hubert also mentioned in the above link, he may have been wrong about the worlds oil supply but that was based on the data he had at the time... He did however correctly predict within a year the decline of the Texas oil fileds in the early 70's. He did that many years before it happened. The long term prediction again becomes really tough, you have new discoveries, new technologies, new data etc.
Richard S.
 
Stoker Coal Boiler: Van Wert VA1200
Coal Size/Type: Buckwheat/Anthracite

Re: Oil

PostBy: Ed.A On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:10 pm

upstate wrote:Thats it, sell everything, the worlds ending. Stock up on coal and canned goods. Hope its not true, I got a long way to go before I get to the end.


Ha! Long life is way over rated anyhow. :lol: But seriously, just as we are getting Dodge Chargers with HEMIS, Mustangs and Camaros with huge motors and Horse power, they want to RIP it out from under us.....AGAIN! Dammit I lived it once and sure as hell don't want to try a second time. Do you realize they are putting out BMWs with 500hp on the street? They're not joking around.

Wev'e got a short time to enjoy before the Nanny state says....No, no, no, put it away, this is not for public consumption.
Ed.A
 
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: Alaska Channing III/ '94 Stoker II
Coal Size/Type: Rice

Re: Oil

PostBy: upstate On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:18 pm

They are just using the info to sell their products. They sell the freeze dried food etc... If we run out it will be just like camping. I gotta move south.
upstate
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: Richard S. On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:19 pm

daveuz wrote:"What about that giant oil find in the Gulf of Mexico? It's suppossed to be huge."

Chevron's recent find in the Gulf of Mexico, nicknamed "Jack 2", is estimated to hold between 3 billiion and 15 billion barrels of oil. Source Let's assume, for the sake of illustration, Chevron's most optimistic estimate of 15 billion barrels is the most accurate estimate. A fifteen billion barrel field puts the global peak (the halfway mark) off by 7.5 billion barrels. This is less than a four month supply at current rates of consumption. At projected rates of oil consumption for the year 2015 it's less than a three month supply..


Lets compare that to Ghawar:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar

Approximately 60-65% of all Saudi oil produced between 1948 and 2000 came from Ghawar. Cumulative production to the end of 2005 was about 60 billion barrels.[6] Currently, Ghawar is estimated to produce over 5 million barrels (800,000 m³) of oil a day (6.25% of global production).

Ghawar also produces approximately 2 billion cubic feet (57 Mm³) of natural gas per day.



5 million barrels a day is about 1.8 billon a year, so if Jack 2 was exploited lie Ghawr it be finished in 2 to 8 years.
Richard S.
 
Stoker Coal Boiler: Van Wert VA1200
Coal Size/Type: Buckwheat/Anthracite

Re: Oil

PostBy: daveuz On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:42 pm

[quote="Richard S."]Been there done that with this thread: Future of anthracite coal

Richard, thanks for the link. An interesting discussion!
daveuz
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: daveuz On: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:45 pm

Richard S. wrote:
daveuz wrote:"What about that giant oil find in the Gulf of Mexico? It's suppossed to be huge."

Chevron's recent find in the Gulf of Mexico, nicknamed "Jack 2", is estimated to hold between 3 billiion and 15 billion barrels of oil. Source Let's assume, for the sake of illustration, Chevron's most optimistic estimate of 15 billion barrels is the most accurate estimate. A fifteen billion barrel field puts the global peak (the halfway mark) off by 7.5 billion barrels. This is less than a four month supply at current rates of consumption. At projected rates of oil consumption for the year 2015 it's less than a three month supply..


** [b]Please Note that I took this quote from the link I provided at the top. I deleted a section that wasn't relative to the discussion and must have deleted the explantion of where the quote came from also. I have gone back and corrected it.[/b]
daveuz
 

Re: Oil

PostBy: coaledsweat On: Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:22 am

Here is an interesting fact. It takes 16 calories of oil to get 1 calorie of food on your table in this country.
Do you know what happens when the oil runs out?
coaledsweat
 
Stoker Coal Boiler: Axeman Anderson 260M
Coal Size/Type: Pea

Re: Oil

PostBy: watkinsdr On: Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:33 am

Diesel in Seabrook NH last night: $4.09/gallon! Never thought I'd see the day!
watkinsdr
 
Stoker Coal Boiler: AHS S260 Boiler

Re: Oil

PostBy: watkinsdr On: Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:41 am

The USA is currently well on the way to a major food crisis. With our corn and grain prices going through the roof because of demand for ethanol, beef farmers are slaughtering their animals early instead of feeding them. The show I saw on CNN Thursday night is predicting a major food crisis within 18 - 24 months---all "fueled" by the ethanol debacle. We're basically trading food for ethanol---this is frickin' crazy.
watkinsdr
 
Stoker Coal Boiler: AHS S260 Boiler