Did Central Bankers Make a Secret Deal to Drive Markets?

Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: SWPaDon On: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:22 am

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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: jpete On: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:27 am

The mission statement of the Federal Reserve is to ensure 1%-2% inflation year over year.

It is NOT a "secret" deal. It is out in the open for everyone to see. It's just that most people can't find the nose on their face without a GPS.
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Fri Mar 25, 2016 7:55 am

The FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, otherwise known as the PPT, or Plunge Protection Team) has met formally only about 150 times since June of 1997, and each meeting lasts two days. If you take away only the gains that the S&P 500 Index has made on specifically those 300 meeting days, you will find that the S&P 500 Index has not gained a single point since June of 1997.

Here is the chart:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... ntier1.jpg

And here is the entire article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-2 ... -impact-sp

Coincidence?
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: SWPaDon On: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:02 pm

Global central bankers, stuck at zero, unite in plea for help from governments


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/global-centra ... iness.html
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:24 pm

SWPaDon wrote:
Global central bankers, stuck at zero, unite in plea for help from governments


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/global-centra ... iness.html


Just as I suspected. A currency system that demands exponential economic growth for infinity also demands the immigration by which to fuel exponential population growth for infinity. This article mandates (among many other things) that the (until now) pretty much closed nation of Japan start opening its borders to all forms of massive immigration whereby to stimulate its economic growth. When humans are classified as resources, and currency comes from nowhere and is backed by nothing, this is what you get.
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:39 pm

The Swiss central bank appears to be honest about its open and ongoing purchases of corporate stocks. To the tune of about $120 billion overall so far. When will the rest of the worlds central banks come clean on this practice? Should entities that have the power to fabricate currency from thin air at will be allowed to purchase corporate stocks?

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/08/s ... ft-stocks/
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: KLook On: Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:59 pm

hould entities that have the power to fabricate currency from thin air at will be allowed to purchase corporate stocks?


No....

Kevin
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:53 am

So far 2/3 of the worlds central banks have implemented negative interest rates. In an environment like this, will Janet Yellen raise our interest rates? Or will she get in line and implement negative interest rates?
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: SWPaDon On: Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:05 am

lsayre wrote:So far 2/3 of the worlds central banks have implemented negative interest rates. In an environment like this, will Janet Yellen raise our interest rates? Or will she get in line and implement negative interest rates?

I think the latter is a good bet.
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: rberq On: Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:14 pm

lsayre wrote:The FOMC … has met formally only about 150 times since June of 1997, and each meeting lasts two days. If you take away only the gains that the S&P 500 Index has made on specifically those 300 meeting days, you will find that the S&P 500 Index has not gained a single point since June of 1997 … Coincidence?

Larry. :!: How long have you known about this, without telling the rest of us poor slobs? :mad:
It's a guaranteed get-rich scheme: buy just before every scheduled meeting, sell on day two, thereby locking in all the market gains and avoiding all losses. No more buy-and-hold for me, I don't care what the Bogleheads say. :P

P.S. Those trend lines on the chart are totally bogus, statistically. I could do a better least-squares regression on the back of a wet dinner napkin.

Here’s a more mundane explanation, even if we grant (I don't) the above claim (eliminating days) to be true. The market trend is what it is, but stock buyers tend to hold off when the Fed is meeting, until they find out what happens in the meeting. Then when there are no scary announcements from the Fed, they go ahead and buy what they were hoping to buy. I have seen that for myself, over and over and over, by reviewing an S&P chart over the course of a meeting day. It’s only common sense not to jump in the water until you see whether that fin is an upside-down surf board or a right-side-up shark. AND it works both ways -- often the market will drop after a meeting -- so it's not valid to eliminate meeting-day gains unless you also eliminate meeting-day losses.

You have heard the phrase before: Numbers don't lie but liars use numbers. Zerohedge is a perfect example.
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:16 pm

Yes, no matter how you look at it, our Central Bank is strongly influencing manipulating what is otherwise expected to be a market for honest price discovery. That some have figured out how the manipulation game is best played does not make the manipulation go away.
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:19 pm

It's not just ZeroHedge claiming that market moves are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve. Here is a recent mainstream media dissertation that claims 93% correlation between the Fed and market moves since 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-c ... 26366.html
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: rberq On: Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:16 pm

lsayre wrote:It's not just ZeroHedge claiming that market moves are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve. Here is a recent mainstream media dissertation that claims 93% correlation between the Fed and market moves since 2008.

Total rubbish! Correlation isn't causation. That is statistical reasoning of the worst kind. What this guy has done is find four correlations – pairs of numbers that moved in the same direction at the same time – then claimed that one of them caused the other. It’s like saying teachers’ pay has risen in the last 30 years, and global temperatures have also risen, therefore teachers’ pay causes global warming. Or vice versa. Total total total total garbage! .

When you look backwards and take enough numbers, you can find thousands of correlations for almost anything, especially if you cherry pick your time periods. Last week a contractor dug a hole in my back yard to replace my septic tank, and that night it rained. Just today I dug a hole in my front yard, and now it is raining. That’s correlation for you, over the course of a whole week. But it remains to be seen if I can cure Maine’s drought by further digging. What do you think?
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: lsayre On: Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:02 pm

To strengthen the correlation you need more data points. Keep digging! :lol:
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Re: Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets?

PostBy: rberq On: Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:56 pm

lsayre wrote:To strengthen the correlation you need more data points. Keep digging! :lol:

I forgot to mention the two holes that did NOT result in rain, so the correlation is pretty poor overall. I have three places where rain comes off my roof and runs into the cellar, so I have dug out about 140 square feet sloping away from the foundation about 2 inches per foot, installed EPDM rubber sheeting, then refilled the excavations and graded the surface about 3/4 inch per foot. Now I need rain to find out whether it works or not. One possible result is that more water will pool at the base of the front steps, and if so I expect correlation between rainstorms and wifely complaints.
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