By: pvolcko On: Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:39 am
That math didn't work, but how about this:
There are, as of 2006, 111+ million households in the US. Not all are owned homes, not all are mortgaged, certainly a relative few are part of the subprime issue or are in danger of foreclosure. But for the sake of argument, lets just say they are all owned homes and all have been mortgaged in the last 15 years and are potentially part of the subprime mess. Estimates are that roughly 5% of all the mortgages out there are in danger of foreclosure at this point. This 700 billion figure for the bailout was generated on the basis of it being 5% of the debt instruments at issue, in danger of defaulting.
So... 5% of 111 million is 5,550,000. Lets say we, as a nation, are willing to help out by giving each of these trouble households a $100,000 check to pay off mortgage or home equity loan debt, that's $555,000,000,000, aka $555 billion. That is probably enough to pay off most of the low income area sub prime debt. We will be buying lots of families their homes, fee and clear in depressed urban and suburban areas. They will probably be able to buy iphones for their family too. And for the high cost sub prime loan homes, we don't "care" as much about them the rich SOBs, the $100k should be enough to pay of a sizable chunk of principle and renegotiate for a long term fixed interest loan at today's low interest rates. And we save ourselves $145 billion dollars. And we get the undying gratitude of poor urban and sububan minorities that are most impacted by this whole mess on the low income side. No doubt Sharpton, Wright, Phleger, Jackson, and Frahkahan and the rest of the race baiters of the nation will close up shop and go fishing for the rest of their lives.
Sarcasm aside, consider that according to the Center for American Progress (a lib think tank, so consider these the most favorable numbers toward the working class, poor, and minorities), only 2.2 million homes are currently at risk of forclosure, not the 5.55 million I used above. Using the same $100K scheme that's only $220 billion instead of $555 billion, or a savings of $480 billion compared to the current $700 billion plan. This either means that the $700 billion plan is buying up 2.2 million bad loans with an average value of around $318 K each, or we'll be buying a lot of stuff that is not residential mortgage related, or it has lots of already defaulted properties that don't show up in that 2.2 million figure. All three potentials are cause for concern. And even though this simple $100K scheme is a direct and permanent loss (as opposed to the bailout where some amount will be sold back into the private sector), the $220 billion total is entirely within the realm of what the taxpayers may be left holding on the bailout plan once all is said and done 10+ years down the road.