http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20081103/u ... almathform
Barring an extraordinary shock, Barack Obama will win more than 270 electoral votes on Tuesday, giving him the White House. Hours before voting starts, John McCain has no clear path to reaching that same goal.
In fact, based on interviews with political strategists in both parties, election analysts and advisers to both presidential campaigns - including a detailed look at public and private polling data - an Obama victory with well over 300 electoral votes is a more likely outcome than a McCain victory.
Under the Electoral College system, a candidate wins all of a state's electoral votes as long as he or she achieves a popular vote victory of any margin. Obama's commanding position results from the fact that he holds seemingly impregnable popular vote leads in twenty-four states, plus the District of Columbia, with 291 electoral votes, more than he needs to win. Obama's geographic anchors are the northeast, the mid-Atlantic, the upper industrial Midwest and the west coast, all areas that Democratic presidential candidates have dominated for several election cycles.