Coal getting expensive vs NG

I read an article recently from a noted financial advisor that said the following - you guys that know about this stuff let me know if this is true or not:


From what I got from it, it says that the new technology (fracking) has cause an explosion in NG extraction - so fast that we don't have the infrastructure to export it. This has resulted in stockpiles of gas, and that's the reason for the very low prices. Gas in Japan and Europe is still $16/per cubic foot ... or something like that - it's very high compared to our costs. Obama holds all the permits for export facility construction - he is playing favorites with the leverage he has in holding those permits over their heads. As of right now, there is only ONE facility exporting gas in the entire country! If the permits are granted, several more will come on line, and the price will steadily rise. Maybe he's waiting till after the winter so no one notices.

The other part of this I heard, is that this same technology is being used to extract oil. Due to our ability to retrieve oil from previously impossible locations, the USA is now sitting on a potential reserve 3x the size of Saudi Arabia! We see the current activity in ND is proving this to be true. Once things get going, the price of oil will plummet the same as gas did (boy I can't wait for that to happen!!!), and the new-found wealth will change this country in ways that we never imagined. This is how Obama will try for a 3rd term, and probably win. Even though the stage was set for this boom under Bush, he'll take all the credit.

This advisor has a track record of being correct 90% of the time, so I hope they're right - just not on the 3rd term stuff.

Smitty,I don't want to get too far off topic but I must say he may be right on the new found wealth but unfortunately it's not for us it's for all the CEOs,Presidents,stock holders,and owners of these businesses not for the common folk like us. If you think about it there is way to much money to be made on stuff we need to live like we're use to, the past few years showed that with all the company's cutting wages, benefits,and people(I know some had to do it to survive That I understand,but some just used that excuse to increase profits for them)when things got better they didn't give back or replace the people they let go they just brag about the profits and the big raises and bonuses they get because they never have enough $$$$$.Keepaeyeonit

Lightning wrote:

stoker_RI wrote:

Lightning wrote:I can't get Natural gas where I live, otherwise I would if pricing was comparably close.. BUT I can benefit from lower coal prices if natural gas helps drive the price of coal down

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I can't EVER see that scenario happening here! coal market share compared to NG wouldn't even register out this way! Do you really think that could happen out your way? Do you have a feel for what % of fuel is being used by customers?

Richard S. wrote:You may even see a decent reduction in the coal price this summer. I know in the Fall the one breaker here was running a really good price and that tells me that they have a lot of coal on hand.

The mayor seems to think so

Well if the mayor is right, hes got my vote! ..lol

Seems there was a huge thread some time ago about natural gas driving coal price down.. Most people thought that natural gas would not have any influence over coal price. But I say why wouldn't it? If the supply of coal goes up, it only makes sense that the price would come down. Economics 101............

Lightning wrote:Seems there was a huge thread some time ago about natural gas driving coal price down.. Most people thought that natural gas would not have any influence over coal price. But I say why wouldn't it? If the supply of coal goes up, it only makes sense that the price would come down. Economics 101............

Read some more theads on previous discussions about the coal prices. Coal isn't much of a supply and demand market place as production will vary with demand. Occasional shortages due to fluctuating demand. The cost of production is not tied to natural gas but to diesel fuel prices.

SMITTY wrote:I read an article recently from a noted financial advisor that said the following - you guys that know about this stuff let me know if this is true or not:


From what I got from it, it says that the new technology (fracking) has cause an explosion in NG extraction -

Nothing new about Fracking. It has been done for years and years. What is new is the horizontal drilling techniques that have been developed to permit the extraction of the Shale gas. With the drop in natural gas prices, the drilling frenzy is probably starting to cool down.

steamup wrote:Read some more theads on previous discussions about the coal prices. Coal isn't much of a supply and demand market place as production will vary with demand. Occasional shortages due to fluctuating demand. The cost of production is not tied to natural gas but to diesel fuel prices.

So what happens if they get too far ahead with coal supply? They just lay off workers till the supply dwindles down? I thought they mine coal all year long.. Wouldn't there be surges at particular times of the year?

Anthracite is a declining resource, as opposed to NG which is a vastly growing resource. The easy to retrieve anthracite reserves peaked and went into terminal decline many decades ago.

I'm convinced that anthracite is more beholden to the price of oil than to any connection with NG.

A good old friend that was in the Oil business years ago always said was, " Go Modern, Go Gas, Go Boom!

Keepaeyeonit wrote:I take Pity on you guys in the New England area,I don't know what the cost of living is but it must be high! I live in NE Ohio and can get coal delivered to me for $240.00 to $260.00 a ton tax and all from a dealer.You guys have beautiful country up there but holy *censored* on the prices of stuff.Keepaeyeonit

You don't want to know my friend! Do you have your vomit bag ready?
Taxes on EVERYTHING!.. and high rates!..income tax, annual property tax, annual auto tax, 7.5% sales tax, yeary auto reg fees and inspections...on and on ...high gas tax..think .22 cents..high corp. tax..I own a business as a corp., and I have to pay $500 a year just for the privaledge! even if I don't make a cent! High real estate prices! avg home prices around 400K!..
S**t!..My annual Property tax for my home is 8K! chew on that for a minute!
On the other hand, if you are on the low end of the economic spectrum, you've got it made in liberal New England! Its a welfare state!...makes me sick!...
Alright..I'll step off my soap box now...

$100 for a gun license .... $75 for a auto title .... $50 for reg, & the governor (an *censored*) wants to DOUBLE that .... $39 for mandatory inspection ... and a 6 YEAR surcharge on your insurance if you don't, plus fines ....

steamup wrote:Nothing new about Fracking. It has been done for years and years. What is new is the horizontal drilling techniques that have been developed to permit the extraction of the Shale gas. With the drop in natural gas prices, the drilling frenzy is probably starting to cool down.

Yep - that's the new thing I meant to say. Forgot what it was. Shale was mentioned in that article - that's where all these HUGE oil reserves are. Will take a few years, but prices SHOULD head downward by the end of O-man's term.

If they go low enough, I'll be storing coal long-term. Would be nice to see how the other half lives for once, and just turn a dial for heat!

SMITTY wrote:$100 for a gun license .... $75 for a auto title .... $50 for reg, & the governor (an *censored*) wants to DOUBLE that .... $39 for mandatory inspection ... and a 6 YEAR surcharge on your insurance if you don't, plus fines ....

Ah! Smitty!..I see you are from TaxAccussetts!..So you feel my pain!..you can relate for sure!
And dont forget mandatory insurance and mandatory uninsured motorist coverage, just in case the guy that hits you didnt follow the rule and buy his mandatory insurance!

It was costing me over $200 a year to register and insure my enclosed 24' enclosed trailer in Taxachewsetts. I registered it in RI to my business I think its less than $20

Oysterboy wrote:Yeah I hear you!
I live over on the Vineyard and they want $14 for a 40 lbs. bag. I pick up a pallet at Aubuchon Hardware for around $430. That's still a lot cheaper than feeding my 30 year old furnace with oil. I use about 80 bags a winter to keep the house at 75.

Glad to hear their are some folks out their on the Vinyard, sailing with the Kennedy's and such... who actually think about fuel costs LOL. Welcome to the forum... I would LOVE some photo's from houses and stoves in use on the Vinyard (especially with this Blizzard blowing in tomorrow! Its defiantly another world out their and its nice to have someone in the forum from the Island

lobsterman wrote:

Oysterboy wrote:Yeah I hear you!
I live over on the Vineyard and they want $14 for a 40 lbs. bag. I pick up a pallet at Aubuchon Hardware for around $430. That's still a lot cheaper than feeding my 30 year old furnace with oil. I use about 80 bags a winter to keep the house at 75.

Wow, gotta love the Vineyard prices! The Aubuchon price by the pallet, however, is about the same as they are asking on Cape Cod, $425 per ton. The lowest I have seen in the coastal region lately is $320 per ton bagged and that involves some driving and hauling. The large garden centers that handle a lot of solid fuels are coming in at around $380 a ton.

Wow, I just bought some here at $7.50 for 50# bag...of course only 1.5 hrs from PA border